Todays word on the state of our state, our nation, and the world.
By Sandy Fitzgerald | Saturday, 11 Jul 2015 07:40 PM
The scientists who issued a dire warning during the 1970s about an impending new "Ice Age" that would start in about the year 2020 may have been right after all, with one group of scientific researchers now warning that in about five years the Earth may start to dip into a miniature Ice Age if conflicting solar systems cancel each other out.
The phenomenon is called the "Maunder minimum," and was last experienced in the period between 1646 and 1715, reports The Daily Mail, and caused London’s River Thames to freeze over.
According to results presented by Professor Valentina Zharkova at the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno, the new solar cycle models are producing accurate predictions of irregularities in two layers of the sun, one that is close to its surface and the other deeper inside, and suggest that solar activity could drop by 60 percent in the 2030s,
The waves will start becoming increasingly offset in the year 2022 when one cycle peaks, the model shows, while during the following cycle, covering the decade between 2030-2040, the waves will be out of sync, which will cause the reduction in solar activity, the model predicts.
"In cycle 26, the two waves exactly mirror each other — peaking at the same time but in opposite hemispheres of the Sun," Zharkova commented. "Their interaction will be disruptive, or they will nearly cancel each other. We predict that this will lead to the properties of a ‘Maunder minimum.’"
When the waves are in phase, though, there is strong solar activity, but when there is "full phase separation," the Maunder conditions take over, according to the researchers.
Scientists first discovered 172 years ago that solar activity generally varies in cycles that last between 10 and 20 years, reports The Daily Mail, and Zharkova said she and her colleagues have been able to create a model that can complete solar predictions with better-than-ever accuracy rates of 97 percent.
"We found magnetic wave components appearing in pairs, originating in two different layers in the Sun’s interior," she said. "’They both have a frequency of approximately 11 years, although this frequency is slightly different, and they are offset in time."
In their research, using principal component analysis of magnetic field observations gathered at the Wilcox Solar Observatory in California, the scientists examined three solar cycles, covering the period between 1976 and 2008 and compared their predictions to sunspot numbers. Research revealed the predictions and observations matched closely.
Zharkova and her colleagues are not the first scientists to predict an Ice Age to start in the year 2020. Back in the 1970s, the media often promoted the idea that the globe would be freezing over, reports Popular Technology, with many blaming man-made pollution, not the cycles of the sun.
In one movie, "The Coming Ice Age," Star Trek star Leonard Nimoy narrated a dire warning in 1978 that mirrored Zharkova’s modern-day predictions, stating that the hard winters experienced in places like Buffalo, NY were what people could expect in the 2020s and ahead.
Story continues below video.
And climate expert John Casey earlier this year told Newsmax TV’s J.D. Hayworth that the direction of climate change cannot be determined based on a single event, but the collection of record-breaking winters shows that the planet is getting colder.
"Just about every American can now see that we’ve had a series of brutal, record-setting winters that are starting earlier, staying longer and breaking records that are 100 and 150 years old," Casey told Hayworth.
"Clearly, the planet is getting colder," said Casey, president of the Space and Science Research Corp.
College Insurrection, Posted by Aleister Saturday, July 11, 2015 at 9:30am
Well, Obama did say he wanted to “fundamentally transform” the United States.
Michael Bastasch of the Daily Caller reported.
President Barack Obama’s push to unilaterally commit the United States to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions in the coming years is about changing the constitutional…
By Stephen Moore April 24, 2015 – 11:16 AM
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Former Vice President Al Gore discusses Greenland’s ice sheet at the U.N. Climate summit in Copenhagen, Denmark, on Monday, Dec. 14, 2009. (AP Photo/Anja Niedringhaus)
Wednesday was Earth Day and to hear the experts like Usher and Al Gore tell the story, the planet is in a miserable state. We’re running out of our natural resources, we’re overpopulating the globe and running out of room, the air that we breathe is becoming toxic, the oceans are rising and soon major coastal cities will be underwater, and the Earth is, of course, heating up, except when it is cooling down.
This is perhaps the single greatest misinformation campaign in world history. Virtually none of these claims are even close to the truth—except for the fact that our climate is always changing as it has for hundreds of thousands of years.
Since the first Earth Day back in the 1970s, the environmentalists—those who worship the creation rather than the Creator—have issued one false prediction of Armageddon after another. Yet despite a batting average approaching zero, the media and our schools keep parroting their declinism as if they were oracles rather than proven shysters.
Here are the factual realities that we should be celebrating on Earth Day.
1) Natural resources are more abundant and affordable today than ever before in history. Short-term (sometimes decades-long) volatility aside, the price of most natural resources—from cocoa to cotton to coal—is cheaper today in real terms than 50, 100, or 500 years ago. This has happened even as the world’s population has nearly tripled. Technology has far outpaced depletion of the Earth’s resources.
2) Energy—the master resource—is super abundant. Remember when people like Paul Ehrlich nearly 50 years ago and Barack Obama just three years ago—warned that we were running out of oil and gas. Today, thanks to the new age of oil and gas, thanks to fracking, the United States has hundreds of years of petroleum and an estimated 290 years of coal. Keep in mind, this may be a low-ball estimate; since 2000, the Energy Information Administration’s estimates of recoverable reserves have actually increased by more than 7 percent.
We’re not running out of energy, we are running into it.
Scientific truth is the first casualty in ideological crusades like that of climate change. (AP Photo/John McConnico)
3) Air and water. Since the late 1970s, pollutants in the air have plunged. Lead pollution plunged by more than 90 percent, carbon monoxide and sulfur dioxide by more than 50 percent, with ozone and nitrogen dioxide declining as well. This means that emissions per capita have declined even as the economy in terms of real GDP nearly tripled. By nearly every standard measure it is much, much, much cleaner today in the United States than 50 and 100 years ago. The air is so clean now that the EPA worries about carbon dioxide which isn’t even a pollutant. (And, by the way, carbon emissions are falling too, thanks to fracking). One hundred years ago, about one in four deaths in the U.S. was due to contaminants in drinking water. But from 1971-2002, fewer than three people per year in the U.S. were documented to have died from water contamination.
4) There is no Malthusian nightmare of overpopulation. Birth rates have fallen by about one-half around the world over the last 50 years. Developed countries are having too few kids, not too many. Even with a population of 7.3 billion people, average incomes, especially in poor countries, have surged over the last 40 years. The number of people in abject poverty fell by 1 billion from 1981 to 2011, even as global population increased by more than 1.5 billion.
5) Global per capita food production is 40 percent higher today than as recently as 1950. In most nations the nutrition problem today is obesity—too many calories consumed—not hunger. The number of famines and related deaths over the last 100 years has fallen in half. More than 12 million lives on average were lost each decade from the 1920s-1960s to famine. Since then, fewer than 4 million lives on average per decade were lost. Tragically, these famines are often caused by political corruption—not nature. Furthermore, the price of food has fallen steadily in the U.S.—and most other nations steadily for 200 years.
6) The rate of death and physical destruction from natural disasters or severe weather changes has plummeted over the last 50 to 100 years. Loss of life from hurricanes, floods, heat, droughts, and so on is at or near record lows. This is because we have much better advance warning systems, our infrastructure is much more durable, and we have things like air conditioning, to adapt to weather changes. We are constantly discovering new ways to harness and even tame nature.
Earth Day should be a day of joy and celebration that life on this bountiful planet is better than anytime in human history. The state of the planet has never been in such fine shape by almost every objective measure. The Chicken Littles are as wrong today as they were 50 years ago. This is very good news for those who believe that one of our primary missions as human beings is to make life better over time and to leave our planet better off for future generations.
Happy Earth Day.
Stephen Moore, who formerly wrote on the economy and public policy for The Wall Street Journal, is a distinguished visiting fellow for the Project for Economic Growth at The Heritage Foundation.
CNSNEWS July 17, 2015 | 9:55 AM EDT
Click link above to watch; Nobel Prize-Winning Physicist: Obama is ‘Dead Wrong’ on Global Warming
From the Washington Post: The Arctic Ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot, according to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from Consulafft, at Bergen, Norway.
Reports from fishermen, seal hunters and explorers all point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard-of temperatures in the Arctic zone. Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes.
Soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters showed the gulf stream still very warm. Great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones, the report continued, while at many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared.
Very few seals and no white fish are found in the eastern Arctic, while vast shoals of herring and smelts which have never before ventured so far north, are being encountered in the old seal fishing grounds. Within a few years it is predicted that due to the ice melt the sea will rise and make most coastal cities uninhabitable.
The above climate change AP news report is from November 2, 1922 — 93 years ago — and was reported by the news agency in The Washington Post. According to Snopes.com, "It was based on information relayed by the American consul in Norway to the U.S. State Department in October 1922 and published in the Monthly Weather Review.
View related content: Carpe Diem
On the 30th anniversary of the first Earth Day in 1970, Ronald Bailey wrote an excellent article in the May 2000 edition of Reason Magazine titled “Earth Day, Then and Now.” In that article, Bailey noted that around the time of the first Earth Day, and in the years following, there was a “torrent of apocalyptic predictions” and many of those predictions were featured in his Reason article. Well, now that more than 40 years have passed, how accurate were those predictions around the time of the first Earth Day? Wrong, spectacularly wrong, and here are 18 examples:
1. Harvard biologist George Wald estimated that “civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind.”
2. “We are in an environmental crisis which threatens the survival of this nation, and of the world as a suitable place of human habitation,” wrote Washington University biologist Barry Commoner in the Earth Day issue of the scholarly journal Environment.
3. The day after the first Earth Day, the New York Times editorial page warned, “Man must stop pollution and conserve his resources, not merely to enhance existence but to save the race from intolerable deterioration and possible extinction.”
4. “Population will inevitably and completely outstrip whatever small increases in food supplies we make,” Paul Ehrlich confidently declared in the April 1970 Mademoiselle. “The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next ten years.”
5. “Most of the people who are going to die in the greatest cataclysm in the history of man have already been born,” wrote Paul Ehrlich in a 1969 essay titled “Eco-Catastrophe! “By… some experts feel that food shortages will have escalated the present level of world hunger and starvation into famines of unbelievable proportions. Other experts, more optimistic, think the ultimate food-population collision will not occur until the decade of the 1980s.”
6. Ehrlich sketched out his most alarmist scenario for the 1970 Earth Day issue of The Progressive, assuring readers that between 1980 and 1989, some 4 billion people, including 65 million Americans, would perish in the “Great Die-Off.”
7. “It is already too late to avoid mass starvation,” declared Denis Hayes, the chief organizer for Earth Day, in the Spring 1970 issue of The Living Wilderness.
8. Peter Gunter, a North Texas State University professor, wrote in 1970, “Demographers agree almost unanimously on the following grim timetable: by 1975 widespread famines will begin in India; these will spread by 1990 to include all of India, Pakistan, China and the Near East, Africa. By the year 2000, or conceivably sooner, South and Central America will exist under famine conditions….By the year 2000, thirty years from now, the entire world, with the exception of Western Europe, North America, and Australia, will be in famine.”
9. In January 1970, Life reported, “Scientists have solid experimental and theoretical evidence to support…the following predictions: In a decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution…by 1985 air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half….”
10. Ecologist Kenneth Watt told Time that, “At the present rate of nitrogen buildup, it’s only a matter of time before light will be filtered out of the atmosphere and none of our land will be usable.”
11. Barry Commoner predicted that decaying organic pollutants would use up all of the oxygen in America’s rivers, causing freshwater fish to suffocate.
12. Paul Ehrlich chimed in, predicting in his 1970 that “air pollution…is certainly going to take hundreds of thousands of lives in the next few years alone.” Ehrlich sketched a scenario in which 200,000 Americans would die in 1973 during “smog disasters” in New York and Los Angeles.
13. Paul Ehrlich warned in the May 1970 issue of Audubon that DDT and other chlorinated hydrocarbons “may have substantially reduced the life expectancy of people born since 1945.” Ehrlich warned that Americans born since 1946…now had a life expectancy of only 49 years, and he predicted that if current patterns continued this expectancy would reach 42 years by 1980, when it might level out.
14. Ecologist Kenneth Watt declared, “By the year 2000, if present trends continue, we will be using up crude oil at such a rate…that there won’t be any more crude oil. You’ll drive up to the pump and say, `Fill ‘er up, buddy,’ and he’ll say, `I am very sorry, there isn’t any.’”
15. Harrison Brown, a scientist at the National Academy of Sciences, published a chart in Scientific American that looked at metal reserves and estimated the humanity would totally run out of copper shortly after 2000. Lead, zinc, tin, gold, and silver would be gone before 1990.
16. Sen. Gaylord Nelson wrote in Look that, “Dr. S. Dillon Ripley, secretary of the Smithsonian Institute, believes that in 25 years, somewhere between 75 and 80 percent of all the species of living animals will be extinct.”
17. In 1975, Paul Ehrlich predicted that “since more than nine-tenths of the original tropical rainforests will be removed in most areas within the next 30 years or so, it is expected that half of the organisms in these areas will vanish with it.”
18. Kenneth Watt warned about a pending Ice Age in a speech. “The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years,” he declared. “If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age.”
MP: Let’s keep those spectacularly wrong predictions from the first Earth Day 1970 in mind when we’re bombarded tomorrow with media hype, and claims like this from the official Earth Day website:
The fight against climate change is at an impasse and life on Earth hangs in the balance. Help us save polar bears and other wildlife as their habitats disappear and their food sources become scarce. Like the polar bear, human life is under threat, too. Storms are becoming stronger, droughts are becoming more severe, and rising sea levels encroach on our cities. We need an active informed public to stand tall, stop and reverse climate change and protect our children’s future!
Finally, think about this question, posed by Ronald Bailey: What will Earth look like when Earth Day 60 rolls around in 2030? Bailey predicts a much cleaner, and much richer future world, with less hunger and malnutrition, less poverty, and longer life expectancy, and with lower mineral and metal prices. But he makes one final prediction about Earth Day in 2030: “There will be a disproportionately influential group of doomsters predicting that the future–and the present–never looked so bleak.” In other words, the hysteria and apocalyptic predictions will continue, promoted by the “environmental grievance hustlers.”
Mark J. Perry is concurrently a scholar at AEI and a professor of economics and finance at the University of Michigan’s Flint campus. He is best known as the creator and editor of the popular economics blog Carpe Diem. At AEI, Perry writes about economic and financial issues for American.com and the AEIdeas blog.
1. Jeffery April 21st, 2014
Gaea is angry at Mankind, and Mankind needs to go, so say some of the Utopians. That’s why we have population control and stability movements, and of course Planned Genocide Clinics.
2. Seattle Sam April 21st, 2014
It’s odd that when forecasts of “end days” from apocalyptic religious prognosticators are made, the media dutifully brings out how wrong they have been in the past. Yet every Earth Day similar failed predictions don’t get the same attention.
BTW, I wonder if we’ll be reminded of Al Gore’s prediction in 2008 that “the entire North ‘polarized’ cap will disappear in 5 years.”
3. kleht April 21st, 2014
You are certainly correct that the cataclysmic changes predicted around 1970 turned out wrong. And most, including today’s will be mostly wrong – mainly, probably, because dates have been assigned, which is certainly plain baloney. No one, that I am aware of, has ever predicted when an event of such nature will occur by a certain date, let alone whether the event itself will actually occur.
I’ve always felt that humans have an excellent way of predicting the past and the present, but not the future. And I’ve always been a skeptic regarding what I hear, especially when a human says it.
But there are things that can reasonably be predicted, if we leave out the dates, such as:
The number of humans on this planet will level out and not keep rising as it is still doing. All forms of life on this planet are subject to limitations as to numbers. Theoretically, any form of life (from bacteria to the highest forms) could fill every inch of the planet. But it can’t happen for obvious reasons – lack of food, energy, predators, viruses. Humans are not immune to this.
The earth will heat up, regardless of cause. An ice age is in our future and with it the near (or complete) destruction of the human race. Why? Because the history of the earth always follows this course of events, one way or another.
But attempting to date any prediction is a bit foolhardy. But then, so is ridiculing past ill-conceived predictions. After all, hindsight does have its benefits. Instead of simply high-lighting the wrongful predictions (as if we are all-seeing, all-knowing Gods), why not high-light those in the 1970’s who had the foresight to claim the forecasts as foolhardy?
1. Ken April 21st, 2014
But attempting to date any prediction is a bit foolhardy. But then, so is ridiculing past ill-conceived predictions….
… why not high-light those in the 1970′s who had the foresight to claim the forecasts as foolhardy
Julian Simon’s predictions were pretty good. Paul Ehrlich found that out. We should in fact ridicule “ill-conceived predictions”. We know what many of them are and they cause all sorts of damage to society. It’s foolhardy to simply embrace “ill-conceived predictions”.
Sadly, many think the bet was a fluke and Julian Simon is ridiculed. He was the 20th century Cassandra and still today is ridiculed because he put on display the foolishness of the leftist philosophy.
4. Lyle April 21st, 2014
Actually at least since the time of Christ folks have expected the imminent end of the world. The first Christians thought theirs would be the last generation before the end of the world, folks living in the late 900s thought the end of the world was nigh, the Black Death brought projections of the end of the world, a strong motivator of the reformation was the end of the world…
It seems that it it part of human nature that one wishes to make ones time on the earth more important by making it the last days. I sometimes wonder if eschatological projections in the near term are a way of making oneself more important. Of course Chist himself in a greatly neglected comment said don’t worry about the future it will take care of itself with the help of god. But these statements from that inconvenient fellow Jesus don’t fit the way we think so like facts they are ignored.
Breaking News from Newsmax.com Friday, 03 Apr 2015 05:32 PM By Bill Hoffmann
California’s alarming drought is the result of a historic weather pattern — not global warming, as some scientists insist, says Joe Bastardi, chief forecaster for WeatherBell Analytics.
That pattern occurs when the Pacific Ocean cools, bringing drier air to the mainland.
"This happened back in 2005-2006 after the hurricane season," Bastardi on Friday told Rick Ungar and Betsy McCaughey, guest hosts of "The Steve Malzberg Show" on Newsmax TV.
"The southern part of the United States and in California was going to start getting dry because the Pacific … [triggers] this cycle, well known to a lot of us in the field — what we call a pacific decay.
"[It switches] from its warm phase to its cold phase and … the amount of water vapor over the deep tropics in the Pacific … decreases and that rich moisture gets cut off."
On Wednesday, for the first time in the history of the Golden State, Gov. Jerry Brown ordered mandatory water reduction for residents, businesses and farms.
"We’re in a new era. The idea of your nice little green grass getting lots of water every day, that’s going to be a thing of the past," Brown said in announcing the 25 percent cut in usage.
Making the California drought particularly tough this time around is the exploding population increase, Bastardi said.
"There are a lot more people living in California now, and the southern part of the United States, than we had before," he said.
"[It will] have more impact now because there are more people golfing, more people using water for their gardens and things like that.
"It’s a prudent thing that the governor is doing … we are in this cycle for quite a time."
Monday, 27 Apr 2015 08:10 PM By Greg Richter
The Environmental Protection Agency is funding an $84,000 grant to study churches and faith-based groups that encourage members to fight climate change, The Washington Free Beacon reports.
The public money is backing a graduate fellowship at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor that is looking at "sustainability initiatives" at 17 faith-based institutions in order to develop workshops for religious leaders to teach their followers to work to combat climate change.
"Climate change — which affects traditional faith-based efforts to improve human health, mitigate poverty and redress social inequity — is inspiring religious organizations to advocate for clean air and water, restore ecosystems, and conserve resources," the grant for the project reads.
The project began last fall and is scheduled to continue through September 2016.
The project was initiated because "no systematic studies examine why particular activities arise in specific faith communities, what factors contribute to the durability and efficacy of some faith-based sustainability initiatives, or what outcomes emerge from those initiatives," the grant reads.
"Preliminary analysis suggests that successful initiatives follow similar processes of organizational innovation that integrate sustainability into faith-community social norms, thereby creating expectations for collective and individual behavior," it continues.
The funding supports one doctoral candidate at the University of Michigan, EPA Deputy Press Secretary Laura Allen told the Free Beacon. "The student’s research is intended to be a resource for faith-based organizations to determine the best actions to take to combat harmful impacts from climate change," she said.
If any workshops occur, they would be developed by the student receiving the fellowship, not EPA, Allen said.
Climate change is a subject of debate within churches much as it is in society in general. Faith-based groups tend to fall along conservative and liberal ideological lines, though some otherwise conservative evangelicals also have supported climate change initiatives.
Pope Francis is expected to release an encyclical this summer on the issue. He previously has stated "I don’t know if it is all (man’s fault) but the majority is, for the most part, it is man who continuously slaps down nature."
Friday, 01 May 2015 05:42 PM By M.D. Kittle, Watchdog.org
Rep. Glenn Grothman castigated the Environmental Protection Agency on Thursday for lacking common sense and endangering the U.S. economy.
Stanley Meiburg, the EPA’s acting deputy administrator, was in the hot seat for a House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform hearing titled "EPA Mismanagement."
Meiburg had to answer some uncomfortable questions, like, why are EPA employees getting paid to look at porn on taxpayer time?
"There is no federal agency [that] is perceived to lack common sense more, and doing more to endanger the American economy, than the EPA," said Grothman, a Republican from Wisconsin.
"Now this isn’t exactly the type of hearing that I thought I was signing up for when I ran for this job. I thought I was going to talk to the EPA about what your people are doing when they come up with these ridiculous ozone rules," he said.
"Now we know what at least some of them are doing. Is it really true that some of these people were spending two to six hours a day watching porn?"
Last year, a report by the EPA’s inspector general revealed that an unidentified agency employee was watching as much as six hours of porn a day on his office computer and had downloaded some 7,000 pornographic files. As of late March, the employee remained on paid administrative leave.
"When an OIG special agent arrived at this employee’s work space to conduct an interview, the special agent witnessed the employee actively viewing pornography on his government-issued computer," Allan Williams, deputy assistant inspector general for investigations at the EPA, told the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee last year.
When asked why the employee remains employed with the federal government, EPA administrator Gina McCarthy snapped, "I actually have to work through the administrative process, as you know."
The significantly bigger problem, according to Grothman and other EPA critics, is the policies and red-tape regulations the agency has promulgated in recent years that threaten American business and the economy at large.
In particular, the agency’s proposed CO2 rules and the disastrous impact they are projected to have on U.S. coal-fired power plants and the manufacturers who depend on them. And the EPA’s push to preemptively kill development projects without the usual regulatory review because the agency deems them dangerous to the environment.
Because, again, they need a law for that, Rep. Mark Meadows, a North Carolina Republican, this year introduced the Eliminating Pornography from Agencies Act.
Yes, the federal government’s porn problem goes beyond the EPA.
A Washington Times investigation last year found pornography on computers at several federal agencies.
The review of investigation records obtained through a Freedom of Information Act request uncovered employees busted watching porn at work. They often blamed a lack of work for their extracurricular activities.
"He stated he is aware it is against government rules and regulations, but he often does not have enough work to do and has free time," investigators wrote of a Treasury Department employee who viewed more than 13,000 pornographic images in a six-week span, according to the Washington Times piece.
"To ignore this issue would not only condone an abuse of taxpayers’ dollars, but also embrace an unhealthy workplace," Meadows said in a statement in late March.
But there already are prohibitions against porn and other unauthorized activities on the federal government job.
A Congressional Budget Office report last month noted Meadows’ bill would not have a significant cost impact because the "use of government property for unauthorized purposes is already prohibited."
Yet, federal government employees keep doing it.
"While there are rules in place at most agencies to ban this kind of unprofessional and unacceptable workplace behavior, it continues to take place. There is absolutely no excuse for federal employees to be viewing or downloading pornographic materials on the taxpayers’ dime," Meadows said.
M.D. Kittle is national First Amendment reporter at Watchdog.org. Contact him at mkittle.